China, Russia Unveil First-Ever Mediterranean Joint Naval Exercise

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/01/2015 07:25 -0400

• China
 
• Japan

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Sabre-rattling much? For the first time in history, Chinese and Russian navies will begin a significant joint naval exercise in The Mediterranean Sea in mid-May. As RT reports, Chinese Defense Ministry spokesman Geng Yansheng, "The aim is to deepen both countries' friendly and practical cooperation, and increase our navies' ability to jointly deal with maritime security threats," but diplomatically added "these exercises are not aimed at any third party and have nothing to do with the regional situation." Against a background of this week's "upgraded Japan-American military relationship" following Abe's visit to Obama, as one analyst notes, "the geopolitical significance of its exercising alongside Russia will not be lost on the U.S. and NATO."

The Chinese and Russian Navies have exercised together since 2012 in waters off Russia’s eastern seaboard; but as RT reports,

The Russian and Chinese Navies are to hold a joint exercise in the Mediterranean Sea in mid-May, a first in that part of the world. A total of nine warships from the two countries are to participate, Beijing said.

"The aim is to deepen both countries' friendly and practical cooperation, and increase our navies' ability to jointly deal with maritime security threats," Chinese Defense Ministry spokesman Geng Yansheng said on Thursday in a monthly news briefing.

"What needs saying is that these exercises are not aimed at any third party and have nothing to do with the regional situation,"he added, saying that the Chinese Navy would contribute its warships currently on an anti-piracy mission in the Gulf of Aden.

Russia and China have previously held joint naval exercises in the Pacific in waters they both have direct access to. The Mediterranean Sea Cooperation-2015 drill would focus on navigation safety, at-sea replenishment, escort missions and live fire exercises, Geng said.

Moscow and Beijing are intensifying defense cooperation as both countries oppose US criticism of its military policies. China is being accused of aggressive deployments in the South China Sea, where it is contesting territories with several regional nations. The PLA’s Navy and Air Force have been increasingly at odds with Japan and South Korea, key American allies.

The implications and messaging are significant, as The NY Times reports, the two countries want to show they have escalated their strategic partnership.

“It suggests Russia and China are sending a political signal to the U.S. and Europe that the continental powers are standing together to support each other’s expanding interests in the face of maritime opposition,”

...

“The geopolitical significance of its exercising alongside Russia will not be lost on the U.S. and NATO,”  Shi Yinhong, a professor of international relations at Renmin University in Beijing said, “although it would be churlish of anyone in the West to complain about it, given the number of joint drills the U.S. and its allies conduct in China’s near seas.”

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Following yesterday's US decision to safeguard vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, it appears the proxy wars are becoming less proxy.

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Atomstreit Britische Regierung: Iran will Sanktionen umgehen Trotz bestehender Sanktionen versucht Iran angeblich weiterhin, an Nukleartechnologie zu gelangen. Das behauptet die britische Regierung. Unterdessen liefern sich ein amerikanischer Senator und der iranische Außenminister ein Twitter-Duell.

AtomstreitBritische Regierung: Iran will Sanktionen umgehen

Trotz bestehender Sanktionen versucht Iran angeblich weiterhin, an Nukleartechnologie zu gelangen. Das behauptet die britische Regierung. Unterdessen liefern sich ein amerikanischer Senator und der iranische Außenminister ein Twitter-Duell.

01.05.2015

© REUTERSDer Kontrollraum einer iranischen Atomanlage

Iran versucht laut einem vertraulichen Bericht der Vereinten Nationen (UN), trotz der bestehenden Sanktionen Atomtechnologie einzukaufen. Die britische Regierung in London habe die UN am 20. April darüber informiert, dass Iran über zwei den internationalen Sanktionen unterliegende Firmen versuche, an Nukleartechnologie zu kommen, heißt es in dem Report. Der Bericht verweist jedoch darauf, dass die Angaben aus London nicht unabhängig überprüft werden könnten.

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•  Wegen Atomabkommen mit Iran: Netanjahu zieht Vergleich mit NS-Regime 

Die fünf UN-Vetomächte und Deutschland hatten sich Anfang April mit Iran auf Eckpunkte für ein Abkommen geeinigt, das dem Land die friedliche Nutzung der Atomenergie ohne die Möglichkeit zur Herstellung von Nuklearwaffen erlauben soll. Die Vereinbarung sieht unter anderem vor, dass Iran die Zahl seiner Zentrifugen zur Urananreicherung deutlich reduziert und internationale Kontrollen zulässt. Im Gegenzug sollen die internationalen Sanktionen schrittweise gelockert werden. Bis Ende Juni soll ein endgültiges Abkommen stehen.

Wortgefecht auf Twitter

Unterdessen haben sich der iranische Außenminister Mohammed Dschawad Sarif und der der amerikanische Senator Tom Cotton via Twitter miteinander angelegt. Der Republikaner Cotton (37) forderte Sarif (55) in einem Tweet zu einem Rededuell heraus. „Hier ist das Angebot: Wir treffen uns in Washington, Zeit bestimmen Sie, zu einer Debatte über Irans Politik von Tyrannei, Betrug und Terror.“ Am Donnerstag antwortete der Iraner: „Ernsthafte Diplomatie, nicht machohafte Hetzkampagnen, ist das, was wir brauchen.“

Immerhin gratulierte der Iraner Cotton zugleich zur Geburt dessen Sohnes und wünschte der Familie Frieden. Cotton dagegen setzte nach und twitterte: „Ich verstehe, dass Sie ablehnen. Sie haben sich ja auch, als Sie zwanzig waren, während des Irak-Iran-Krieges in den in den Vereinigten Staaten versteckt, als Bauern und Kinder in den Tod geführt wurden.“

Der Streit, so die Zeitung „Politico“, habe sich an einer Bemerkung Sarifs in New York entzündet. Dort habe er gesagt, wenn es in den nächsten Monaten ein Abkommen im Atomstreit mit Iran gebe, würden die Sanktionen gegen Teheran aufgehoben, „ob Senator Cotton das gefällt oder nicht“.

© REUTERS, REUTERSApril 2015: Durchbruch im Atomstreit mit Iran

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Quelle: AFP

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/ausland/atomstreit-britische-regierung-iran-will-sanktionen-umgehen-13568967.html

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Silver Price and iShares Silver Trust (SLV) Going to $12

Submitted by octafinance on 04/30/2015 09:27 -0400

• David Einhorn
 
• Hayman Capital
 
• Ira Sohn
 
• Kyle Bass
 
• Kyle Bass

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We are silver bulls! Yes, that’s true. But before we make some money we will most probably lose some. Long-term we like silver. It’s good not just from an investment perspective but also from an insurance one. Kyle Bass, the manager of the $2 billion Hayman Capital agrees with us: “I’d Much Rather Own Gold Than Paper”, Bass said. Long-term silver is probably a buy but medium-term there is so much risk. The charts show that the support for silver lies at about $12 for futures and $12.5 for iShares Silver Trust (SLV).

The Price Chart of Silver Shows Long-Term Uptrend

We can’t miss to share what we see for the silver price. The big picture interpretations shows that the movement from $17.5 to the psychological barrier of $50 from 2010 to 2011 had only a small correction. It just played as a gigantic parabola. When the silver price went above the upper channel we knew we are in no man’s land and this momentum is good for short-term profits but not sustainable.

Source: Octafinance Interpretations + Rightedgesystems

Experience proved to be smarter than nice parabola feelings. The silver price couldn’t break the barrier of fifty and CME increased margins. This forced the silver bulls to cover – sell and the bears to cover – buy. But the truth is that there wasnobody to buy as the bulls were 98% of the market as per the Daily Sentiment Index.  What was next is easy to guess. Silver, iShares Silver Trust (SLV) made several bear formations which always played without failure. The only chart failures were the bull breakouts. What we know from years of trading is that parabolas are reverted back below their previous channels. Based on the long-term demand line which was formed during a period of more than 12 years, the support for silver is around $11-$12.

6 Months H&S Silver Points to Target at that Long-Term Support

What we see on the chart now in the medium-term is a head & shoulders pattern of 6 months duration. If this H&S proves to be valid and breaks out we will probably dive to the $12 support. In case the right shoulder around $17.5 is penetrated, you can buy your silver protection and tight the stops.

Source: Octafinance Interpretations + Rightedgesystems

Yes, $12 silver price per ounce is a real possibility!

Hedge Funds Wrong Again. Same as with Oil

We love the COT report because it measures sentiment so good. COT is tricky to use but we believe we know how to use it. Shown below, you can see that commercials aka producers (these with inside knowledge unlike the momentum hedge fund machines) are short silver, iShares Silver Trust (SLV). This is very important indication, they are the best informed players.

Source: CFTC + Barchart

Investors, small speculators and hedge funds are still positioned for silver to skyrocket. All this looks very similar to the oil positioning just a year ago when commercial hedged and shorted barrels of oil as fast as possible (something that is saving many of them now), while smart investors and traders were long.

Thanks to Zach Schreiber from PointState Capital, who alerted many hedge funds at the Ira Sohn Investing Conference, some hedge funds didn’t suffer much. David Einhorn for example covered his oil longs and even went short to hedge some oil stock holdings he had, right after the conference.

For the bulls left, the future was not so rosy. You know what happened next. Oil price crashed by 58% going to $45 per barrel of oil from $110.

Of course, we deal with possibilities and we can never be sure if silver / iShares Silver Trust (SLV) will play how we expect it, but as it has gone down 67% from its 2011 high, why couldn’t we see a 75% decline? The technical setup is here, the sentiment is here, the commercials knowledge is here, right on the chart.

Source: http://www.octafinance.com/silver-price-and-ishares-silver-trust-slv-going-to-12/32583/

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The Pentagon's "Long War" Pitches NATO Against China, Russia, & Iran

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/30/2015 20:00 -0400

• Barack Obama
 
• BRICs
 
• China
 
• Eastern Europe
 
• India
 
• Iran
 
• Iraq
 
• Israel
 
• Middle East
 
• New Normal
 
• Obama Administration
 
• Rand Corporation

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Authored Op-Ed by Pepe Escobar, originally posted at SputnikNews.com,

Whatever happens with the nuclear negotiations this summer, and as much as Tehran wants cooperation and not confrontation, Iran is bound to remain - alongside Russia - a key US geostrategic target.

As much as US President Barack Obama tried to dismiss it, the Russian sale of the S-300 missile system to Iran is a monumental game-changer. Even with the added gambit of the Iranian military assuring the made in Iran Bavar 373 may be even more efficient than the S-300.

This explains why Jane's Defense Weekly was already saying years ago that Israel could not penetrate Iranian airspace even if it managed to get there. And after the S-300s Iran inevitably will be offered the even more sophisticated S-400s, which are to be delivered to China as well.

The unspoken secret behind these game-changing proceedings actually terrifies Washington warmongers; it spells out a further frontline of Eurasian integration, in the form of an evolving Eurasian missile shield deployed against Pentagon/NATO ballistic plans.

 

A precious glimpse of what's ahead was offered at the Moscow Conference on International Security (MICS) in mid-April.

 

Here we had the Iranian Defense Minister, Brigadier-General Hussein Dehghan, openly stating that Iran wanted BRICS members China, India, and Russia to jointly oppose NATO's uncontrolled eastward expansion, and characterizing NATO's for all practical purposes offensive missile shield as a threat to their collective security.

 

We also had Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu and Chinese Defense Minister Chang Wanquan emphasizing their military ties are an "overriding priority"; plus Tehran and Moscow stressing they're strategically in synch in their push towards a new multipolar order. 

 

Tearing up the New Iron Curtain

 

Washington's Maidan adventure has yielded not only a crystallization of a new Iron Curtain deployed from the Baltics to the Black Sea. This is NATO's visible game. What's not so visible is that the target is not only Russia, but also Iran and China.

 

The battlefield is now clearly drawn between NATO and Russia/China/Iran. So no wonder they are getting closer. Iran is an observer at the CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization) and is bound to become a member of the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) by 2016.

Russia providing S-300 systems to Iran; S-400 systems to China (with new, longer-range guided missiles); and developing the S-500 systems, which are capable of intercepting supersonic targets, for itself, all point to an ultra high-tech counterpunch. And NATO knows it.

This budding military Eurasia integration is a key subplot of the New Great Game that runs parallel to the Chinese-led New Silk Road(s) project.

As a counterpunch to encroachment, it was bound to happen; after all Beijing is confronted by US encroachment via the Asia-Pacific; Russia by encroachment via Eastern Europe; and Iran by encroachment via Southwest Asia.

Washington would also go for encroachment via Central Asia if it had the means (it doesn't, and especially now with the New Silk Roads bound to crisscross Central Asia). 

Eurasian geopolitics hinges on what happens next with Iran. Some selected Washington factions entertain the myth that Tehran may "sell out" to the US — thus ditching its complex Russia/China strategic relationships to the benefit of an expanded US reach in the Caucasus and Central Asia.

The Supreme Leader as well as President Rouhani have already made it clear that won't happen. They know Washington trying to seduce Iran away from Russia and turn it into a client state does not mean Washington ever accepting Iran's expanded sphere of influence in Southwest Asia and beyond.

So the multi-vector Russia-China-Iran strategic alliance is a go. Because whatever happens with the nuclear negotiations this summer, and as much as Tehran wants cooperation and not confrontation, Iran is bound to remain — alongside Russia — a key US geostrategic target.

That long and winding road

And that brings us — inevitably — to GWOT (Global War on Terror). 

The Pentagon and assorted US neo-cons remain deeply embedded in their strategy of actively promoting Sunni-Shi'ite Divide and Rule with the key objective of demonizing Iran. Yemen is just yet another graphic example.  

Only fools would believe that the Houthis in Yemen could get away with mounting a power play right in front of a CIA drone-infested US military base in Djibouti.

Once again, this is all proceeding according to the Divide and Rule playbook. Washington did absolutely nothing to "protect" its Yemeni puppet regime from a Houthi offensive, while immediately afterwards providing all the necessary "leading from behind" for the House of Saud to go bonkers, killing loads of civilians  — all in the name of fighting "Iranian expansion". US corporate media, predictably, has gone completely nuts about it. 

Nothing new under the sun. This was already foreseen way back in 2008 by the RAND Corporation report Unfolding the Future of the Long War.

Yes, this is the good ol' Pentagon Long War as prosecuted against enemies, fabricated or otherwise, all across the "Muslim world".

What RAND prescribed has become the new normal. Washington supports the petrodollar GCC racket whatever happens, always in the interest of containing "Iranian power and influence"; diverts Salafi-jihadi resources toward "targeting Iranian interests throughout the Middle East," especially in Iraq and Lebanon, hence "cutting back… anti-Western operations"; props up al-Qaeda — and ISIS/ISIL/Daesh — GCC sponsors and "empowers" viciously anti-Shi'ite Islamists everywhere to maintain "Western dominance".

The Long War was first formulated in the "axis of evil" era by the Highlands Forum, a relatively obscure, neo-con infested Pentagon think tank. Not accidentally the RAND Corporation is a major "partner".

It gets even juicier when we know that notorious Long War practitioners such as current Pentagon supremo "Ash" Carter, his deputy Robert Work, and Pentagon intelligence chief Mike Vickers are now in charge of the self-described "Don't Do Stupid Stuff" Obama administration's military strategy.

What the Pentagon — with customary hubris — does not see is Moscow and Tehran easily identifying the power play; the US government's hidden agenda of manipulating a "rehabilitated" Iran to sell plenty of oil and gas to the EU, thus undermining Gazprom.

Technically, this would take years to happen — if ever. Geopolitically, it's nothing but a pipe dream. Call it, in fact, a double pipe dream. 

As much as Washington will never "secure" the Middle East with Iran as a vassal state, thus enabling it to transfer key US military assets to NATO with the purpose of facing the Russian "threat", forget about going back to 1990s Russia under disaster capitalism, when the military industrial complex had collapsed and the West was looting Russia's natural resources at will.  

The bottom line: the Pentagon barks, and the Russia/China/Iran strategic caravan goes on.

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