Hence, we reiterate our call to avoid any direct exposure related to crude oil at present.

Crude oil sees no relief from Libyan tensions
Security in Libya has deteriorated severely after fierce fighting
between militias battling for political control. As a result, Libyan oil
production has fallen below 0.3 mbpd, less than a third of the 0.9
mbpd reached in October. The oil market reacted sensitively to such
headlines in 1H14, but more recently has largely ignored the newsflow
from North Africa. Even if OPEC's crude oil production stays
below the current 30 mbpd level, the oil market could still be
oversupplied by 0.9–1.3 mbpd in 1H15.
To prevent excessive inventory buildup, non-OPEC supply growth,
particularly in US tight oil, needs to decelerate or stall temporarily.
Signs of a potential slowdown in US production growth are
emerging, with the number of rigs targeting oil in the US having
dropped by 76, to 1,499 rigs as of 26 December. We expect the
number of oil rigs in the US to decline further over the next six
months, as we consider that around 20–40% of US tight oil
production is uneconomical at current price levels. Since the impact
of lower rig counts on production takes time as excess production is
worked off, prices are likely to fall further in 1H15 before recovering
in late 2015. Hence, we reiterate our call to avoid any direct
exposure related to crude oil at present.
Giovanni Staunovo, Analyst, UBS AG