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Donnerstag, 6. Juli 2017

The country faces payments on principal and interest of more than $5 billion in the remainder of the year, although no large sums are due before October. Judging by the recent moves in Venezuela CDS, the market is growing increasingly concerned that Maduro will have enough control over the country to make them.

As previously noted, Perez had not been seen since he hijacked a helicopter last week and flew through Caracas pulling a "Freedom" banner. He reportedly opened fire and dropped grenades on the Interior Ministry and Supreme Court but nobody was injured. That attack is widely believed to have been staged to divert attention from the unrest that has brought the country to the brink of economic and political collapse.
Expect violence to worsen as the Constitutional Assembly vote - slated for later this month - draws closer.
Meanwhile, international investors, who have largely ignored the political upheavals in the socialist nation, have started to notice, and as Bloomberg reports, Venezuela's default odds are once again sharply rising as its foreign reserves tumble toward $10 billion amid ongoing deadly anti-government protests and President Nicolas Maduro’s push to rewrite the constitution.
The implied probability of the country missing a payment over the next 12 months rose to 56 percent in June, based on the latest CDS data, the highest level since December. Implied odds of a credit event over the next five years increased to 91% last month.
Maduro, who has faced three months of violent protests that have left almost 80 dead, has drastically cut imports of food and medicine in order to conserve the cash needed to pay bondholders with declining oil prices and production. That hasn’t stopped a drop in reserves, which usually provide investors with a certain degree of assurance that the government will avoid default in the short-term. Recent deals to provide the government with liquidity have only resulted in minor spikes that have disappeared quickly.
The country faces payments on principal and interest of more than $5 billion in the remainder of the year, although no large sums are due before October. Judging by the recent moves in Venezuela CDS, the market is growing increasingly concerned that Maduro will have enough control over the country to make them.

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