As the first signs of compromise emerge between the Ukraine government and its creditors, agreement on restructuring $23 billion of its sovereign debt still looks some way off.
Below is a list of significant dates as negotiations intensify and the International Monetary Fund considers whether to release the next portion of aid for the country.
June 15: First IMF Review
The IMF said in its March report it expects Ukraine’s “debt operation” to be concluded by the time of the first IMF review of the country, scheduled to end June 15 when a $1.7 billion payment is due to be made as part of a proposed $17.5 billion loan.
While the IMF has described the restructuring as “vital” it has stopped short of saying whether it will hold back loan payments if the targets of the restructuring aren’t met. Ukraine has also been set non-debt goals by the IMF, including overhauling its national-energy company and implementing an anti-corruption program.
A $5 billion payment was made on March 11. The rest of the loan is tied to quarterly reviews that end with a $631 million tranche in December 2018.
June 20: Russia Bond Coupon
Ukraine is due to pay $75 million of interest on a Eurobond Russia bought from the regime of former president Viktor Yanukovych before he was overthrown in Feb. 2014. Russia has refused to come to the table to renegotiate the $3 billion note that matures in December.
June 20: CDS Contract Expires
Issuers may have to pay out on Ukraine credit-default swaps that expire on June 20 if the country misses a coupon or agrees to implement cuts to bonds’ principal or coupons before then. Contracts will also expire on Sept. 20 and Dec. 20.
June 25-26: EU Leaders’ Summit
Leaders to vote on whether to extend Russian sanctions past July expiry date.
July 27: Ukreximbank Bond Matures
The State Export-Import Bank of Ukraine, known as Ukreximbank, has $750 million of debt maturing. The bond’s due date was delayed by three months on April 27 to give the company time to negotiate a further seven-year extension.
A group of some of the bank’s biggest creditors said last month they support a proposal to move the due date to 2022 and increase the coupon size with no change to the principal.
July 31: EU sanctions expire
Sanctions on companies and individuals over Moscow’s support for pro-Russia separatists in Ukraine’s east set to expire if not renewed.
Sept. 15: Second IMF Review
Third tranche of IMF loan -- $1.7 billion -- scheduled to be paid amid conclusion of second program review.
Sept. 23: Sovereign-Bond Maturity
The first sovereign bond to mature since Ukraine called in the IMF is $500 million of Eurobonds. That makes it the “real, hard deadline” for the restructuring talks, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst Vadim Khramov.
Oct. 13: Sovereign-Bond Maturity
The second sovereign bond to come due this year is a 600 million-euro bond.
Dec. 15: Third IMF Review
Fourth tranche of IMF loan -- $1.7 billion -- scheduled to be paid amid conclusion of third program review.
Dec. 20: Russia Bond Matures
$3 billion bond sold to Russia in December 2014 comes due, raising the prospect of default if Vladimir Putin’s administration continues to hold out against a deal to change the terms of the bond. Russia claims the security shouldn’t be included in Ukraine’s sovereign restructuring because it should be considered as state aid.
Dec. 31: Minsk II implementation deadline
13 measures, including pullout of all foreign troops from Ukraine, restoration of the border and constitutional reform, have to be completed under Minsk II Agreement.