(BN) Venezuela Seen Staving Off Default Again Even as Crisis Wor
sens
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Venezuela Seen Staving Off Default Again Even as Crisis Worsens
2016-08-09 09:00:00.1 GMT
By Jose Enrique Arrioja
(Bloomberg) -- Even as Venezuela’s economic collapse
deepens, the nation has a good chance of getting through another
year without defaulting on its bonds.
That’s the conclusion of money managers including Aberdeen
Asset Management and Wall Street banks like JPMorgan Chase & Co.
The cash-strapped country has been on default watch for the
past two years as oil prices remain depressed, its economy
implodes and political turmoil worsens amid an effort to recall
the president. Yet Venezuela has managed to scrounge up enough
money to honor billions in debt payments, and this year appears
to be no different. Petroleos de Venezuela SA, the struggling
state oil producer, has $4.1 billion of debt payments to make
before year-end.
“We think they have sufficient resources to pay” $1.4
billion coming due in October, said Anthony Simond, a money
manager at London-based Aberdeen Asset Management, which
oversees about $10 billion of emerging-market debt. He owns
notes due in 2016 and 2017 issued by PDVSA, as the oil company
is known.
While he acknowledges the $2.7 billion of payments in
November will be a “bit trickier,” he said President Nicolas
Maduro wants “to avoid a default at any cost.” Oil Minister
Eulogio Del Pino, who is also president of PDVSA, has said the
company is in advanced talks to refinance debt due in the next
18 months.
For an analysis of how PDVSA can win a debt reprieve, click
here
Maduro’s hold on power is increasingly tenuous as worsening
shortages of everything from food to medicine fan public
discontent. Alberto Ramos, an economist at Goldman Sachs Group
Inc., said in a July 22 note that the country has fallen into a
“depression” with signs of hyperinflation, but is likely to make
all its debt payments this year by drawing down international
reserves.
The International Monetary fund predicts gross domestic
product will shrink an unprecedented 10 percent this year, while
inflation will exceed 700 percent. On July 20, Alejandro Werner,
director of the IMF’s Western Hemisphere department, said
Venezuela will be home to the “worst growth and inflation
performance in the world.”
Despite all this, JPMorgan analysts led by Ben Ramsey
expect Venezuela to make good on debt payments.
“We remain of the view that willingness to pay is very
high,” they said in July 27 note to clients. “And PDVSA has no
intention of triggering a credit event.”
After slashing default bets in recent months, traders
boosted them last week after Maduro shook up his cabinet, a move
that included replacing a key member of his economic team and
giving a top post to a military general accused of drug
trafficking by the U.S.
PDVSA’s press office declined to comment about any debt
initiatives underway at the company or investors’ perception of
the producer’s creditworthiness. Calls and e-mails to officials
at the central bank went unanswered.
To get by, Venezuela will count on a rebound in crude
prices, its gold reserves and financing deals from China,
according to Walter Molano, chief economist at BCP Securities
LLC in Greenwich, Connecticut.
“I feel pretty confident they will pay,” he said, adding
that a PDVSA default would create even more complications for
the economy. "Without oil, Venezuela dies."
--With assistance from Noris Soto and Fabiola Zerpa
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