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B. Public Sector DSA 7. The coverage of public debt in this DSA includes: (i) central government direct debt (including domestic debt held by the NBU amounting to 21 percent of GDP at end-2014); (ii) government guarantees on loans/bonds extended to state-owned enterprises; (iii) debt of local governments; and (iv) National Bank of Ukraine’s (NBU’s) liabilities to the IMF. 8. Baseline projections indicate that the debt ratio would fall to 71 percent of GDP in 2020 after the debt operation (Figure 3). Debt reached 73 percent of GDP at end-2014, a jump of about 30 percentage points from 2013, driven by the large exchange rate depreciation and notable external and domestic financing needs, mainly for Naftogaz. Similar factors at play in 2015 would 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 Before debt operation After debt operation Public and Publicly Guaranteed Debt, 2020 (percent of GDP) Source: IMF staff estimation. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 Before debt operation After debt operation Before debt operation After debt operation Program period (2015-2018) Post-program (2019-2025) Gross Financing Needs (percent of GDP) Source: IMF staff estimation. UAH USD Percent of Percent (Billion) (Billion) GDP of total Public and publicly guaranteed debt 1116 70.8 72.7 100.0 Domestic debt 495 31.4 32.3 44.4 Direct debt in UAH 400 25.4 26.1 35.8 Direct debt in FX 67 4.3 4.4 6.0 Guaranteed debt 28 1.8 1.8 2.5 External debt 621 39.4 40.5 55.6 External direct debt 495 31.4 32.3 44.4 Multilateral 1/ 171 10.8 11.1 15.3 of which: IMF budget support 86 5.4 5.6 7.7 Bilateral 2/ 43 2.7 2.8 3.9 Sovereign Eurobonds 273 17.3 17.8 24.4 Local government Eurobonds 3/ 9 0.6 0.6 0.8 External guaranteed debt 126 8.0 8.2 11.3 of which: IMF loans to NBU 34 2.2 2.2 3.1 of which: Eurobonds 29 1.8 1.9 2.6 Sources: Ministry of Finance 1/ Includes IMF, WB, EBRD, EIB. 2/ Includes EU. 3/ Issued by the city of Kyiv.


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