El Cronista
Vultures: new efforts by the government’s fund friends
Wednesday, December 11, 2013
The pool of investment funds led by Gramercy which has been working on a private proposal to the holdouts to lift the lawsuit against the country announced yesterday that they’ve hired the law firm Linklaters to represent them in efforts with NML Capital and the other groups suing Argentina for US$1.5 billion in bonds in default.
The bondholder friends of the country put together a negotiation committee that will be in charge of presenting the offer to NML Capital, the fund of Paul Singer. They propose giving up 20% of the payments to those who entered the swap and giving it to the plaintiffs, to improve the offer of the third restructuring that the government is promoting.
While the Executive never confirmed nor denied the efforts, they are following them, with former Economy minister Hernan Lorenzino as permanent interlocutor with Gramercy. Lorenzino will led the Executive Unit for Debt Renegotiation, which the government created ad hoc when he was removed from the Palacio de Hacienda. Also working in that dependency is former Finance secretary Adrián Cosentino, who will be the operative man in the country when Lorenzino sets up in Brussels as ambassador to the European Union.
Ambito Financiero
Gramercy hires Linklaters
Wednesday, December 11, 2013
The investment funds making up the so-called “Ad Hoc Creditors Group” designated the international law firm Linklaters as their legal advisors in the proposal of debt swap among private parties that will be offered to the vulture funds that have non-restructured Argentine bonds in their power.
The Ad Hoc Group is made up of large investment funds that entered the debt restructuring process that Argentina carried out in 2005 and 2010. “After years of litigation, the Ad Hoc Creditors Committee plans to negotiate a consensual solution with the holdouts on non-restructured bonds to put an end to the dispute started 10 years ago derived from the default that Argentina fell into in 2001,” said the Linklaters firm, in announcing their hiring.
The proposal of a “private swap” is known on the market as the “Gramercy solution” – since it came out that this fund is one of the promoters of the initiative. It would consist of offering a debt swap to the holdouts, in which the latter resign their position of wanting to collect 100% and accept negotiating with the private entities a haircut smaller than what the Argentine government is offering. That “windfall” that the holdouts would obtain between what Argentina is offering and what the bondholders would offer will be paid out by these bondholders themselves, who will give up, as such, part of the payment they are to receive in interest on the restructured bonds.
La Nacion
Predictions that the government will apply more controls to halt the fall in reserves
Wednesday, December 11, 2013
by Martín Kanenguiser | LA NACION
Economists predict that in 2014, growth will be anemic and inflation will round up to 30%, in the hands of the greater, and ineffective, controls imposed to deal with the loss of international reserves.
This month's LatinFocus Consensus Forecast report highlights that consulting firms and banks believe that "the government will deepen its interventionist style of economic management with stronger measures to deal with capital outflows that are emptying the reserves" of the Central Bank.
Immediately, the report, published on the website www.focus-economics.com , clarifies that, despite the increase in controls, "the demand for dollars remains high," in the context of a devaluation, in annualized terms, reaching to 47 percent.
The report indicates that an official exchange rate 6.22 is expected by year's end - despite the fact that yesterday it already reached 6.27 - and 8.04 by late 2014, in a context of deterioration of all the indicators of the real economy.
In this sense, the measurements of inflation mentioned in the report for next year average at 28.8% (compared to 25.6% this year), but some are stretched up to 35%, while in terms of economic growth, the consensus is that it will be 1.7% (4% for 2013).
The consulting firm Capital Economics predicts a recession of 1%; Banco Santander, a growth of just 0.5%; Bank of America, 0.7%; HSBC, 1%, and the Bein firm and JP Morgan, 1.5%. On the other hand, Citigroup expects a 3 percent growth.
It should be recalled that the government placed in the budget a growth projection of 6.2% and 9.9% on inflation, even though it pledged to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to introduce new statistics at the beginning of next year.
In particular, Cabinet Chief Jorge Capitanich said yesterday that "in February of 2014, the first publication of the CPI is set, and in March the first publication of gross domestic product," like the IMF pointed out two days ago that it will to have to wait a few months to see if it again sanctions the country.
The main concern of financial investors is that with these methodological corrections, whether the government will pay the US$2.5 billion coupon linked to GDP in December of next year or not, on the basis of the growth of this year.
In terms of the real economy, the report mentions the "broad worsening of expectations.” Latinfocus projected a growth of 2.3% in private consumption, against 4.7 percent expected for this year; on investment they expected something similar: 1.7% against 4%, and a growth of the fiscal deficit of 2.4% of GDP, against 2.3 of this year.
The Kirchnerist economist from La Grand Makro, Agustin D'Attellis, told LA NACION that "it is necessary that structural reforms are initiated" to change the dynamics and the negative outlook for the economy; a priori, La Grand Makro estimated growth of 3% for 2014, but admits that there may be a worse outcome if there is a failure to resolve outstanding debts to regain access to external financing, including an agreement with the IMF.
The great expectation of economists and investors revolves around the possibility of Capitanich implementing the eternally postponed agenda of "fine tuning", consisting of another cut to subsidies, a settlement with the Paris Club, with the holdouts and the IMF, and a return to taking debt.
In this regard, a report by analyst Casey Reckman of Credit Suisse said that "it seems unlikely that the government will implement radical policies or deepen the model; on the other hand, it could possibly focus on containing the growing macroeconomic imbalances.”
Reckman said, that "although there is distrust of the leadership of Minister Kicillof, there more confidence in the possibility that Capitanich may help to maintain a more pragmatic tone.”
The report, entitled "Desperate for dollars", points out that the government will make "all the necessary fiscal and monetary adjustments" to get hard currency, something that, for now, is not reflected in the facts.
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