The Good, The Bad and The Ugly: Gold in 2013 and the Outlook for 2014
- Australia
- Bank of England
- Bank of New York
- Barclays
- Ben Bernanke
- Ben Bernanke
- Bond
- Central Banks
- China
- default
- Deutsche Bank
- Dubai
- European Central Bank
- Eurozone
- Exchange Traded Fund
- Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation
- Federal Reserve
- Federal Reserve Bank
- Federal Reserve Bank of New York
- Futures market
- George Soros
- Global Economy
- Greece
- India
- Italy
- Janet Yellen
- Japan
- Jim Rogers
- Kazakhstan
- Middle East
- NASDAQ
- National Debt
- Nikkei
- President Obama
- recovery
- Switzerland
- Turkey
- United Kingdom
- Yen
CONTENTS
- Introduction
- Review of 2013
- Gold and Silver Have Torrid Year - Fall 27% and 35% Respectively
- Year Of Paper Selling But Robust Physical Demand - Especially From China
- Highlights Of Year - German Gold Repatriation, Record Highs In Yen, Huge Chinese Demand
- Lowlights Of Year - Massive Paper Sell Offs in April/June and Cypriot Deposit Confiscation
- Syria and the Middle East
- U.S. Government Shutdown and $12 Trillion Default Risk
- Continuing Central Bank Demand
- Regulatory Authorities Investigate Gold Rigging
- Introduction
- Review of 2013
- Gold and Silver Have Torrid Year - Fall 27% and 35% Respectively
- Year Of Paper Selling But Robust Physical Demand - Especially From China
- Highlights Of Year - German Gold Repatriation, Record Highs In Yen, Huge Chinese Demand
- Lowlights Of Year - Massive Paper Sell Offs in April/June and Cypriot Deposit Confiscation
- Syria and the Middle East
- U.S. Government Shutdown and $12 Trillion Default Risk
- Continuing Central Bank Demand
- Regulatory Authorities Investigate Gold Rigging
Outlook 2014
- Geopolitical Tensions - The Middle East, Russia, China, Japan and the U.S.
- Ultra Loose Monetary Policies Set To Continue with Yellen as New Federal Reserve Chair
- Eurozone Debt Crisis Again - UK, U.S. Japan and China Also Vulnerable
- Enter The Dragon - Chinese Gold Demand Paradigm Shift To Continue
- Death Of Indian Gold Market Greatly Exaggerated
- Long Term (2014-2020) MSGM Fundamentals
- Geopolitical Tensions - The Middle East, Russia, China, Japan and the U.S.
- Ultra Loose Monetary Policies Set To Continue with Yellen as New Federal Reserve Chair
- Eurozone Debt Crisis Again - UK, U.S. Japan and China Also Vulnerable
- Enter The Dragon - Chinese Gold Demand Paradigm Shift To Continue
- Death Of Indian Gold Market Greatly Exaggerated
- Long Term (2014-2020) MSGM Fundamentals
Conclusion
Introduction
Happy New Year. We would like to take this opportunity to wish our clients and subscribers a prosperous, healthy and happy 2014.
Happy New Year. We would like to take this opportunity to wish our clients and subscribers a prosperous, healthy and happy 2014.
With 2013 having come to a close, it is important to take stock and review how various assets have performed in 2013, assess the outlook in 2014, and even more importantly, the outlook for the coming years.
2013 was the year of the speculator and the year of the risk asset, such as equities, with global stocks doing well in the sea of liquidity and cheap money created by central banks.
Surprisingly to many gold bulls, these favourable monetary conditions did not lead to higher precious metal prices. Gold and particularly silver had a torrid year and significantly underperformed the vast majority of equity and bond markets.
Surprisingly to many gold bulls, these favourable monetary conditions did not lead to higher precious metal prices. Gold and particularly silver had a torrid year and significantly underperformed the vast majority of equity and bond markets.
The MSCI World Index was up 23% and the S&P 500, the Nasdaq and the FTSE were up 32%, 35% and 14% respectively.
MSCI World Index - 1970 to January 3, 2014 - Bloomberg
Bond investors did not fare as well as interest rates began to rise from all-time record lows. As bond prices fell, interest rates rose. The bellwether 10-year Treasury note closed the year at 3.028%, which was up from 1.76% at the start of 2013 and the highest since July 2011.
US 10 Year Note - 1964 to January 3, 2014 - Bloomberg
The Barclays US Aggregate bond index, which is dominated by Treasury, mortgage and corporate bonds and is the leading benchmark followed by institutional money, is set to record its first negative year of total returns since 1999. The bond market’s major benchmark registered a total return of minus 2.1% for 2013. It is only the benchmark’s third annual negative total return since 1976, according to Barclays.
REVIEW OF 2013
Gold and Silver Have a Torrid Year - Fall 28% and 36% Respectively
Gold fell in all major currencies in 2013 and fell 28% in dollar terms for its first annual price fall since 2000. Gold fell 40% in pound terms, 45% in euro terms. Gold fell much less in Japanese yen terms and was 16% lower in yen as the yen continued to be devalued and debased.
Gold fell in all major currencies in 2013 and fell 28% in dollar terms for its first annual price fall since 2000. Gold fell 40% in pound terms, 45% in euro terms. Gold fell much less in Japanese yen terms and was 16% lower in yen as the yen continued to be devalued and debased.
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