By Nick Malkoutzis
Trying to predict how Greeks will vote on June 17 in the midst of the
turmoil created by the country’s grueling economic crisis and the
disorientating political transition is a thankless task, but the latest
Public Issue poll for Kathimerini indicates we might get a clear result.
More
so than at any other point over the last few weeks, Public Issue
suggests that SYRIZA has built a commanding -- although not decisive or
unassailable -- lead over New Democracy. The survey shows a rise of 1.5
percent for the leftists since last week, so they now stand at 31.5
percent. New Democracy suffered a marginal decline and sits at 25.5
percent.
They are followed by a struggling PASOK on 13.5 percent, a
resurgent Democratic Left (DIMAR) on 7.5 percent, a static Communist
Party (KKE) on 5.5 percent, the declining Independent Greeks on 5.5
percent and a shrinking Chrysi Avgi (Golden Dawn) on 4.5 percent. The
liberal alliance of Dimiourgia Xana (Recreate Greece) and Drasi falls
short of entering Parliament with 2.5 percent.
In terms of
parliamentary seats, this translates into 134 for SYRIZA, 68 for New
Democracy, 36 for PASOK, 20 for DIMAR, 15 for KKE, 15 for Independent
Greeks and 12 for Chrysi Avgi. While SYRIZA could not form a government
itself with these numbers, it would only need the support of Democratic
Left to have a majority.
At this point, two caveats must be added:
Firstly, the poll was conducted before SYRIZA leader Alexis Tsipras
presented his party’s economic program on Friday and, secondly, the May 6
elections showed there can be plenty of movement in the last two weeks
of the campaign.
SYRIZA’s economic program has the potential to
make or break the leftists. If it is deemed incoherent and full of holes
that the other parties can expose, SYRIZA’s aspirations of power could
be short-lived. If, on the other hand, it is seen as a coherent agenda
that the party can unite behind in a disciplined manner in the final
stretch of the campaign, it may be enough to get the radical coalition
over the finishing line. SYRIZA’s surge before the May 6 polls came in
the last two to three weeks of the campaign, taking most commentators,
pollsters and analysts by surprise. It cannot be ruled out that a
similar shift will be seen over the next two weeks. Since this is such a
close-run contest, it will not take much to swing the final result in
favor of SYRIZA or New Democracy.
However, there are certain signs
that SYRIZA has managed to build on the momentum it gained on May 6,
when it won almost 17 percent of the vote -- more than three times the
share of the ballot it received in 2009.
The fear for SYRIZA was
that having being thrust into the spotlight as a result of its showing
on May 6, its weaknesses would be exposed and the party would be left
deflated on June 17. The first week or two after the May 6 elections
proved a tricky period for the leftists, whose jumbled positions on
economic policy and the EU-IMF memorandum undermined the party’s
credibility. It also exposed the fact that SYRIZA is a coalition of
radical and more moderate forces and that its polyphony can be a serious
weakness as well as strength.
Its opponents played on these
shortcomings and fears that a confused, immature SYRIZA-led government
would jeopardize Greece’s euro membership. Polls indicated an initial
rise in support for New Democracy but the Public Issue survey suggests
this has tapered off, at least for now.
The danger for SYRIZA was
that if it was deemed to lack credibility, some of the support it gained
on May 6 would drift back to PASOK or even migrate to Democratic Left,
which maintains a more measured opposition to the EU-IMF bailout than
the radical leftists. But neither of these things happened. For all the
fluctuations polls showed in the support for SYRIZA and ND, PASOK has
remained anchored to its feeble showing on May 6. The Socialists have
hardly moved from around 13 percent and seem unable to convince their
former supporters to return to the fold. In contrast, Democratic Left
shows a modest rise, but this has not come at the expense of SYRIZA.
There has been a drastic fall in the number of people intending to vote
for parties that won’t get into Parliament. If SYRIZA and Democratic
Left are drawing support from this pool and not from each other, then
Tsipras’s party doesn’t face a strong threat from the left side of the
political spectrum.
In fact, the Public Issue poll indicates that
SYRIZA is fishing support from an even larger tank. Over the last few
months, a growing proportion of Greeks has positioned itself on the left
wing of Greek politics. According to the latest survey, half of those
questioned said they identified with the left. This was up from 39
percent just over a month earlier. Those identifying with the right,
however, are at 28 percent, which has remained virtually unchanged for
the last six weeks.
This presents a serious problem for New
Democracy. These numbers suggest its potential appeal has a much lower
ceiling than SYRIZA and that it has almost reached it. The conservatives
have tried to pull out all the stops to build on the slim lead of 2
percent they had over the leftists on May 6. This included welcoming
back Dora Bakoyannis, who suspended the operation of her Democratic
Alliance party, and several members of the Popular Orthodox Rally (LAOS)
and Independent Greeks, all of which had been a drain on ND’s support.
However, now that’s been done, ND leader Antonis Samaras has nowhere
else to turn to generate support. He’s brought in the reinforcements but
still seems outnumbered by Tsipras’s amassing troops.
The last
vestige of hope for Samaras has been to polarize the campaign, to turn
it into an all-out battle between the responsible conservatives who
would keep Greece on an even keel and in the euro and the reckless
leftists who dream impossible schemes that would ensure the return of
the drachma and deep misery. So far, the euro-vs-drachma dilemma has had
only limited appeal and time is running out for Samaras to state his
case convincingly.
The presentation of his party’s economic
program on Thursday lacked the pomp and circumstance of previous
addresses at Zappeio Hall but, more crucially, seemed to carry little
weight. Media interest was scant and the ideas presented were tired. It
had the air of an inconsequential conference, where everyone was staring
at the clock for the last speaker of the day to finish. Compare this
with the heightened expectation for Tsipras’s address on Friday, and the
SYRIZA leader seemed like the guy with all the momentum. Brighter and
fresher, he even got his audience of their seats a couple of times.
Maybe the body language and aura meant very little but one imagines the
conservatives would have gladly swapped places with the leftists at this
stage of the campaign.
One encouraging sign for the conservatives
could be that almost twice as many Greeks think that ND will win the
elections as those who believe SYRIZA will come first. The leftists want
to break with the past but they have to conquer it first by making
people believe a SYRIZA-led government is possible and viable. It may be
the only thing left standing between them and what until recently was
an election result nobody could have predicted.
[Kathimerini English Edition] |
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Illustration by Manos Symeonakis for Cartoon Movement http://www.cartoonmovement.com/p/6035
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