Sovereign Default Research

The recent increase in debt levels among advanced industrial countries due to the global financial crisis is concerning to sovereign investors and observers. This page provides a centralized source for Moody’s research related to sovereign defaults. Our research combines empirical analysis of historical sovereign default and recovery rates with “bottom-up” case study approach to provide a unique perspective on issues such as the causes of sovereign defaults, government interference during crises, the features of sovereign debt restructurings, losses experienced by investors and the aftermath of sovereign defaults. Our analysis scrutinizes the historical record and draws out insights for the current debt crisis.     Research  Publication Date Document Type  Title 03 Mar 2014 Special Comment Impact of Court Ruling on Argentina's Debt on Future Sovereign Debt Restructurings Is Likely Limited 29 Jan 2014 Presentation Sovereign Debt Restructurings: Historical Evidence and Implications 29 Jan 2014 Special Comment Sovereign Defaults Series: The Aftermath of Sovereign Defaults 23 Oct 2013 Presentation Sovereign Defaults and Restructurings 08 Oct 2013 Presentation Market Re-access, IMF Program Participation and Sovereign Credit Challenges: Outlook on Ireland and Portugal 07 Oct 2013 Special Comment Market Re-Access and Credit Standing After Sovereign Default 07 Oct 2013 Special Comment Sovereign Defaults Series Compendium: The Aftermath of Sovereign Defaults 13 Aug 2013 Special Comment IMF Program Participation Underscores Medium-Term Sovereign Credit Challenges 20 Jun 2013 Sovereign Monitor Moody's Sovereign Monitor – Focus on Sovereign Defaults 12 Jun 2013 Special Comment Sovereign Default and Recovery Rates, 1983-2012 12 Jun 2013 Excel File Sovereign Default and Recovery Rates, 1983-2012 - Excel Data Supplement 03 Jun 2013 Sector Comment IMF Debt Restructuring Proposals Are Credit Negative for Distressed Sovereign Bondholders 26 Apr 2013 Special Comment Moody's Default Definition and its Application to Sovereign Debt 10 Apr 2013 Special Comment The Role of Holdout Creditors and CACs in Sovereign Debt Restructurings 06 Dec 2012 Special Comment US Court Ruling on Argentina’s Debt Could Have Limited Implications for Sovereign Debt Restructurings 13 Nov 2012 Special Comment Sovereign Debt Restructurings Provide Liquidity Relief But Often Do Not Reduce Debt Levels 13 Sep 2012 Special Comment Default and Recovery Rates for Regional and Local Governments outside the U.S., 1983-2011 07 Aug 2012 Special Comment Investor Losses in Modern-Era Sovereign Bond Restructurings 30 Jul 2012 Special Comment Sovereign Default and Recovery Rates, 1983-2012H1 15 Aug 2011 Sector Comment Moody’s Sovereign Ratings Accurately Rank Default Risk 30 Jun 2011 Special Comment Moody's Default Definition and its Application to Sovereign Debt 10 May 2011 Special Comment Sovereign Default and Recovery Rates, 1983-2010 02 Nov 2010 Special Comment The Causes of Sovereign Defaults: Ability to Manage Crises Not Merely Determined by Debt Levels 01 Apr 2010 Special Comment Sovereign Default and Recovery Rates, 1983-2009 01 Mar 2009 Special Comment Sovereign Default and Recovery Rates, 1983-2008 01 Aug 2008 Special Comment Sovereign Defaults and Interference: Perspectives on Government Risks 01 Mar 2008 Special Comment Sovereign Default and Recovery Rates, 1983-2007 01 Jun 2007 Special Comment Sovereign Default and Recovery Rates, 1983-2006 01 Apr 2006 Special Comment Default and Recovery Rates of Sovereign Bond Issuers, 1983-2005 https://www.moodys.com/Pages/Sovereign-Default-Research.aspx