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Dienstag, 20. März 2012

intelligente Überlegungen zum swisslaw bond der griechen (per email an mich)

Ich bin der gleichen Meinung, denke auch dass das Quorum verhindert wird. Evtl. schaffe ich es auch auf das Bondholdermeeting. Anbei meine Überlegungen mit der Bitte um Feedback
I did a lot of research regarding the PSI and I found an interesting bond about which it is from my point of view worth to have a special look at.
As you wrote on your blog Swiss bondholders are organizing. I am privatly invested in this bond and wraped up some ideas:
This bond is in several cases special compared to the other ones. Here a short overview:

1) The bond is governed by Swiss law and even after an amendment of the terms of the bond, it will be governed by Swiss law. As far as I understood it, this bond will be not part of the ESFS co-financing agreement. (See invitation: There will be only a reduction of the nominal amount and a increase of the maturity. Sounds crazy…..
2) The bond rank already pari passu including negative pledge and cross default (see Terms & Conditions and Kontierungsinserat),

so there is quite a good chance that the Greece government has immediately to pay that bond back at par (default on the Greek law bonds and collateral agreement with Finland). Also that special account for interest rate payments should be a kind of collateral. Now you could argue that the Greek government is not willed to pay the bond back. But if this would be the case, why the Greece government should be willed to pay the bond back over the next 30 years, if the bond has the same legal status than before.
Keap in mind, that pari passu means the bonds have the same status as the bonds hold by the European central bank, the short term treasury bill (which are also not part of the PSI) and the new PSI Bonds. I don't see the pint why any rational thinking investor should forgive more than 50% of the nominal amount and extend the maturity up to 30 years.

3) The Greece government is looking for an tax agreement with Switzerland and they want also access to black money accounts there like that "Lavrentiadis" case. Any agreement would be blocked if the court in Zurich decides, that Greece has to pay that bond

4) Bondholders: If you have a look at the syndicate Banks, who sold the bond (Credit Suisse,
ABN AMRO Bank N.V., Zurich Branch, Bank Julius Baer & Co. Ltd., Bank Sarasin & Co. Ltd, Bank Vontobel AG, Bayerische Hypo- und Vereinsbank AG, Munich, Zurich Branch, BNP PARIBAS (SUISSE) SA, Cantonalbanks of Switzerland, Lombard Odier Darier Hentsch & Cie, Pictet & Cie, Rued, Blass & Cie AG, Schweizer Verband der Raiffeisenbanken and UBS AG), it looks for me quite obvious, that most of the bonds are held by private banking or wealth management account.

5) The quorum: If the Greece government wants to amend the Terms and conditions of that bond, it is necessary that 66% of the bondholders participate in the voting and 66% of them agree.
Now comes the funny part: I spoke with the closing agent: You can vote in favour or against the proposed amendments till 23rd of March, but you can not change or revocate your vote once you voted. If you voted or if you ask for a blocking certificate to vote personally at the bondholders meeting in Zurich, your bond are blocked and you can not trade them anymore.

I personally think there is quite a good chance that this special Swiss law bond will not participate in the PSI and will get repaid at par in July 2013. I am also privately invested in that bond.In the beginning I made the mistake not to read the prospectus of the bonds and invested also some money in Greek law bonds. But this prospectus seems really bondholder friendly, it's just necessary to get control of 34% of the outstanding bond or to get these bondholders organized. The problem is just that maybe just a few people read this prospectus.
You can get it here:

Der ausfuhrliche Emissions-/Kotierungsprospekt in englischer
Sprache, der ausschliesslich fur die Emission und die Borsenzulassung
massgebend ist, steht bei den nachstehend aufgefuhrten
Banken zur Verfugung oder kann tagsuber via Telefon 044 333 49 73
bzw. im 24-Stunden-Service entweder unter Telefax 044 333 57 79
oder via e-mail unter bei der
Credit Suisse bestellt werden.You can trade the bond at the
Swiss stock exchange, but it is very limited volume. So everybody who is interested in this bond should use tight limits.

But the
Swiss stock exchange has also an open order book, which makes it a little bit easier.

Did I missed any point or did I understud anything wrong? I hope not. If I am right, this could be a way to get some money back from the Greece Government.
Have also a look at

Best regards,
 with a disclaimer. As I mentioned I bought this bond as a private investor and I do not recommend anything. I just want to share my research.

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