Guest Post: Why Everybody's Going To War in the Middle East
Submitted by Ron Holland of The Daily Bell,
Iran Wants War"Everybody's going to war but we don't know what we are fighting for."
– Nerina Pallot, from "Everybody's Gone to War"
Although a peaceful nation for hundreds of years, Iran was invaded and occupied by the Allies in both World War One and Two. Then in 1980, at the urging of the United States, Saddam Hussein invaded them and used poison gas against both Kurds and Iran. Over 500,000 civilians, Iranian and Iraqi soldiers died in the longest war of the 20th century, which lasted until 1988.
Iran wants war because they believe they can withstand an Israel and US air assault and that unless they are invaded and occupied they can claim victory. No Middle East nation has ever been victorious against either the US or Israel and to declare victory against both will make Iran the leading nation across the entire region, at least for the people in the street. An Israel/US assault would also solve growing domestic political problems against the regime.
Israel
Bibi Netanyahu obviously believes Iran threatens the survival of Israel, as no major domestic political reasons to go to war are evident. The majority of Israel's population appears to be opposed to a military strike against Iranian nuclear facilities because of retaliation from Iran and Hezbollah. But as in the US, what the majority of the people want is of no consequence.
If the war plan leaked several days ago is real (see "Bibi's Secret War Plan") it's excellent but no war plan survives the first contact with the enemy. It appears to be an exact reverse of my fictional "The First American Dollar War Defeat" in which Electromagnetic Pulse weaponry is deployed.
So Netanyahu believes Israel can delay Iranian nuclear advances by bombing them back into the Stone Age with the help of America, who will surely be drawn into the conflict. Although most neocon experts believe the war will be short with a minimum of retaliation I fear the war could be a long one, pulling in many other nations in the Middle East. Again, Iran showed its resolve against Iraq in their long war and this same determination would rise to extreme levels against an Israeli strike.
USA
The old war against terror propaganda is losing ground to alternative news and opinion now available because of the Internet Reformation. Frankly, few people believe anything from either the American government or its establishment propaganda outlets and this is a frightening situation to the power elite that rules America.
Due to the growing economic crisis, the government needs to take strong actions that could be violently resisted by large segments of the US population unless a major financial or military crisis can be used as an excuse and cover for coming dictatorial actions. Simply stated, there are not enough police and military in the US to control the population should an insurrection take place. A major war in the Middle East can provide a casus belli for a direct assault against US private wealth, liberties, benefit programs and opposition by the power elite.
For example, the imposition of a military draft will dramatically cut unemployment rates as well as limit inner-city crime and outrage over cuts in domestic spending and welfare. Remember, austerity is needed and a draconian cut in Social Security and benefit programs must be engineered against the 50 percent of the population who receive some type of government benefits.
In addition, gold will need to be confiscated. Forced retirement investment into collapsing dollar denominated Treasury obligations must be required when foreign investors stop buying US debt. Stronger TSA authority, drones and harsh domestic controls will need to be implemented for the duration of the conflict in order to squelch domestic opposition. Taxes must be raised, penalties and fines must be doubled and tripled at the federal, state and municipal levels and finally, severe limitations on freedom of speech and freedom of assembly will be forced on the American people, along with gun control and limited access to Internet news and communications.
Finally, a major, long-term war in the Middle East will provide an excuse for the deferment and rescheduling of US debt obligations owed to nations and governments that oppose the US/Israel war in the Middle East. For the $1 trillion owed to China and many Middle East nations, this is effectively debt repudiation.
China
China wants to see the US weakened long-term as a world power and a major war in the Middle East will do this. They also need a reason to dump US Treasury debt and an excuse to avoid the blame of the coming broader repudiation of US debt. The Chinese people will be justifiably outraged that the Chinese government and central bank accumulated $1 trillion in US debt, although there were legitimate global trading reasons and domestic economic justification for this over-concentration in US debt and dollar obligations.
A Middle East war would avoid direct military action between the US and China while protecting both US and Chinese politicians from the coming Treasury debt repudiation, Chinese dump and global run on the dollar and Treasuries.
Conclusion
All sides in the coming conflict – except for the civilian populations and the soldiers maimed and killed – will win if everything goes according to plan. However, nothing ever goes according to plan in wars and this is the problem the world will face. Prolonged recession or depression, wealth and benefit confiscation throughout the EU, US and other Western democracies and the risk of a Middle East conflict spreading around the world is my fear.
Who is guaranteed to win regardless of the outcome of the war and whether it can be contained? The Anglo-American financial elites and the bankers always win every conflict regardless of the military outcome. This is the history of the 20th century and I see no reason that will change now.
Forty-plus years ago, when I was in basic training, we sang the patriotic and somewhat funny marching songs. But when our drill sergeants were out of range, we would shift into "1, 2, 3, 4 what are we fighting for?"
Looks to me like nothing has changed. American soldiers are still fighting for the power elites and their favored industries. I wish it were different.
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