CACerei bei den foreign law Bonds...langen die Mehrheiten Bond by Bond

GREECE bonds. Guess around 59% voted yes already
For the foreign law bonds the situation is slightly more complicated. For each one of them there would be a bondholder’s meeting held on the 27th-29th of March in London (also one in Zurich for the CHF bond). Bondholder’s would be asked to vote whether they accept the exchange offer of the Hell.Republic or not. As each one of these bonds has already Collective Action Clauses a 2/3 or ¾ majority would be needed in order to successfully pass the amendment.
What are the chances of this happening and what are the possible implications? According to Greece’s statement 69% (or 19.5billion) of the non-eligible bonds were tendered or consented to the amendments. There are 28.31billion of non-eligible bonds but only 21billion are foreign law bonds. The rest 6.7billion are Greek law loans and one can safely assume that the Greek banks obliged and tendered all of them. If we subtract this 6.7billion then we find that the percentage of Foreign law bonds that voted yes is 59% or 12.8billion out of 21.6billion. This unfortunately does not say much as we need to know the percentages bond by bond. In any case, most of these bonds have a 2/3 CAC majority.
Now what would happen if someone has a blocking minority or even the whole bond (some are wholly owned by one non-greek investor). Assuming that they turn down the bond amendment then the Hell.Republic would have a dilemma:

1. Continue to service these bonds and then try to buy them off in the secondary market. The Invitation offering allows for such a strategy.

2. Stops paying them, in other words Greece causes a Failure to Pay.

The second outcome is slightly more worrisome than the CDS trigger event. This time it is not a restructuring event but the state refusing to pay. So far, Greece has never failed a payment. Doing so may actually have unpredictable consequences. Apart from tarnishing the already non-existing reputation of the Hell.Republic it may also trigger many other unforeseen events. Forexample Greece has more than 40 Bilateral Investment treaties. Are these under threat? What would the IMF say? It is very unclear as to what would happen if days after the exit from the restructuring and the upgrade by many rating agencies Greece were to declare a moratorium on some of the foreign law bonds.

von meinem Freund Andreas aus London