The market now anticipates the Fed beginning to raise the overnight rate in May of 2015. A month ago the expectation was for the end of 2015 - the implied rate hike has been pulled forward.

The futures market implies the Fed "taper" to end by early 2015 Posted: 10 Jun 2013 06:46 PM PDT The rate curve implied by the Fed Funds futures has steepened considerably over the past month. The market now anticipates the Fed beginning to raise the overnight rate in May of 2015. A month ago the expectation was for the end of 2015 - the implied rate hike has been pulled forward.  But the Fed can't start raising rates before the end of the unconventional monetary policy measures (can't be raising rates while buying securities at the same time). That means if the Fed begins to "taper" off bond buying in the next few months, it will have about one and a half years to go from $85 bn of securities purchases per month to zero. Source: Barclays Capital SoberLook.com From our sponsor: www.SoberLook.com

Which countries are running the largest government deficits? Posted: 10 Jun 2013 03:08 PM PDT The OECD recently updated its 2013 projection of government deficits for the countries they track. The latest results show Japan running by far the largest fiscal deficit, the UK is number 4 on the list, and the US is number 9 (out of total of 37). Here is the full list which includes a few surprises. Source: OECD And the chart below shows how those deficits changed from 2012 (negative numbers indicate an increase in deficit or a reduction in surplus). Greece is the most improved (assuming the OECD numbers are correct), while Slovenia's deficit worsened the most. Source: OECD